Showing posts with label inflation. Show all posts
Showing posts with label inflation. Show all posts

Wednesday, August 25, 2010

Americans these days are concerned, or downright fearful, of what the future may hold. With the current economic situation and all of the unrest around the world, we have a reason to be concerned. This is not 1950 any more. We do not have a lot of confidence in our leaders, our economy, or even that we will have a job tomorrow. The era of "buy what you want, when you want it" is over.

Most people aren't buying big ticket items any more. Existing home sales are way down. Car sales are down. People are not eating out as much. Everyone is trying to find ways to save money.

For businesses, that means not hiring any new employees or in some cases, laying off. For the working class, that means eating more Mac and Cheese instead of grilling steaks every weekend. We try to find less expensive ways to entertain ourselves. The big problem with this is that it is a vicious cycle that just feeds into itself. Say you own a moderately priced, sit down restaurant and you have 12 employees, 3 cooks/chefs, 6 servers, 2 busboys and a hostess. You have owned this business for several years and have always managed a reasonable profit. Suddenly, the banks are not issuing small business loans and you need a new grill. You have the choice of doing without the equipment, buying it from your own salary, or getting it fixed as best you can. You decided to get it fixed and hope you have enough profit in the next couple of months to be able to buy a new one. Then one or two of the major employers in your community begin to lay off portions of their work force. Those people will have a hard time finding new jobs in the current economy so they will stop eating out. Your business drops off. You change your server scheduling because you don't need all of the wait-staff standing around getting paid with nothing to do. They all get fewer hours and fewer tips. So their personal spending is affected which affects other businesses. Your business slows to the point where you have no choice but to lay off 2 of the servers and 1 of the cooks. So now you have 9 employees. During the busiest prime time rush, your service is slower because you have less help. This causes customers to not come to your restaurant as often. Less business means you either have to raise prices or lose money. Raising prices causes fewer customers, who are also trying to save money, but losing money means that you cannot afford to upkeep equipment, buy quality ingredients, or pay a decent wage. You have no choice but to close your doors. Now there are 9 more people out of work.

All of these things are inter-dependent with every other business in the community. If even 1 business goes under, it effects everyone. And this is happening all over the country. And small communities are being hit the hardest. They are the ones who can least afford for a business to close it's doors.

People are scared that if the economy doesn't get better, all of the jobs in the US with the exception of teachers, public safety(police and firemen) and union jobs (which are protected by the big wigs in Washington) will simply go away. The jobless numbers that we hear about on the news are ONLY the new unemployment claims, not those who have been unable to find a job for the last 18 months.

But even so, you think 10% isn't a bad unemployment number. But think of it this way. That is 1 out of every 10 people you know has just gotten laid off. You know 30 people? 3 of them got laid off this month. And the next month, 3 more get pink slips, and so on. Eventually, most of the people you know will be without a job. Some, maybe half, will be able to find a job of some sort, but it will probably not be for the same pay they were getting before and it probably will not be in their chosen career. It is just a job to keep the bills paid. And it will take them longer to get that job because employers do not want to hire over-qualified people for entry level positions. And there is a lot of competition for every job opening.

Is it any wonder people are nervous? According to the US Department of Labor, 14.6 Million people in the US, and 6.6 Million of those have been unemployed for more than 27 weeks. Don't believe me? Here is the press release from the DoL dated Aug 6, 2010. http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm .

Does anyone honestly think that 14.6 million jobs will miraculously appear in the US so these people can go to work? Not very likely.

Monday, March 17, 2008

Personal Responsibility

One of the many things that really bother me about the direction we are headed as a country is the sheer apathy that most of the country is falling under. No one really cares about anyone else, no one cares about anything but immediate satisfaction of a momentary urge, and no one cares about long term consequences of their actions.

I am a firm believer of Karma, what goes around comes around, and the Threefold Laws. As a country, we are all paying for our past actions. My generation grew up with the belief that we are owed everything by others, that we should be given given what we want and if we don't get it, we should just sue someone to get it. Now there are a few problems with that mindset. I am a bit different that most of my generation. First and foremost is that no one OWES anyone anything. If you do not wish to work, you should not be entitled to benefits that one would expect to receive by working. Those people who work all of their lives and barely make enough to live on expect to get Social Security benefits when they retire. Then there are those whose sole job is to get as much Social Security benefits as possible so they never have to work. There are even those people who have babies out of wedlock just so that they can draw a bigger welfare check. Our country is now paying for the excesses of corrupt society. Our banks are collapsing because they gave risky loans to risky people in the name of greed. Our factories are exporting jobs to third world countries as fast as they can because of wage inflation and over regulation. Bankruptcy courts are being flooded with people who can not pay their credit card bills.

Are we all so conceited that we believe that throwing money at a problem will fix it? Money is not going to fix what is wrong with our country any more. The problem is that corruption has spread into every facet of our lives. We have people who worship the all mighty dollar. We have people who believe that the one with the most toys, wins. And we have people, and corporations, who have no conscience at all when it comes to business matters. No one cares if their next door neighbor is getting laid off because his job is being outsourced to India or Poland because they are too worried about their own job.

We all want the luxuries that the media tell us we should have so we sell our souls to the credit card companies. But when it comes time to pay the piper, we can't. So to pay the credit card bills, we get a second mortgage to pay off the bills. Then, we lose our jobs to someone in another country. Now we have 2 mortgages, kids in school, a couple of car payments and no job. What do we do? File bankruptcy. Now, individually, it doesn't affect society as a whole. The problem is when thousands of people are in this situation. Mortgage companies are having so many people declaring bankruptcy that the banks that underwrite the mortgages are having solvency problems. Banks going bankrupt is bad. Very very bad. It causes everyone who can pay their bills to lose money. It causes stock prices to fall, the dollar to lose value in international markets, and it causes inflation to rise. Inflation, along with a higher unemployment rate, increased fuel prices, and tanking consumer confidence, is adding to the pressure on the government to bail everyone out. The problem with that is the government can't really pay for any kind of bailout without raising taxes. Taxes that are already bordering on the extreme.

I don't know if all of these are just symptoms of the disease that affects our country or if it is the cause. But it will not get any better in this country until we all just take a deep breath and own up to our responsibility.

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